Predicting this weeks results: Week 3

I’m predicting the games before they’re played, and will write a separate post after all games are played to analyse what went wrong/right.

Changes made

I’ve added a slight advantage to teams with a new manager, incrementally boosting Chelsea’s, Manchester United’s, and Wolves’ xG. Considering last week’s positive 50% correct results, I don’t want to meddle with the model too much.

Games to Watch

Leeds vs Arsenal (1.06 vs 1.25):

Looks closer than the names suggest. Arsenal edge it on xG, but only just. I expect Leeds to create chances, and the game feels like a narrow away win rather than a dominant Arsenal performance

Liverpool vs Newcastle (0.88 vs 0.77)

I was surprised to see both teams’ xG surprisingly low, suggesting a tactical battle rather than end-to-end chaos.

Spurs vs Manchester City (0.93 vs 1.72)

City are clearly favoured, but Spurs at home still project close to 1 xG, which matters. Spurs are unlikely to dominate chances, but they should create enough to be dangerous. The data proves that City wins more often than not, but not without discomfort.