Building a Football Prediction Model: Week 3

Accuracy: 40% (8/20 teams had predicted goals scored)

Home	Away	xG Home	xG Away	Actual Score
Leeds	Arsenal	1.06	1.25	0-4
Wolves	Bournemouth	1.61	2.35	0-2
Brighton	Everton	0.68	0.72	1-1
Chelsea	West Ham	1.99	0.81	3-2
Liverpool	Newcastle	0.88	0.77	4-1
Aston Villa	Brentford	1.88	0.75	0-1
Man United	Fulham	1.69	0.95	3-2
N Forest	Crystal Palace	0.93	1.22	1-1
Spurs	Man City	0.93	1.72	2-2
Sunderland	Burnley	2.05	0.73	3-0

Relevant Games

Leeds vs Arsenal (0-4):

Model xG: 1.06 vs 1.25 . Actual xG: 0.14 vs 2.44

My model predicted a close contest, but the game played out as Arsenal dominated, suggesting Arsenal’s attacking efficiency and Leeds’ defensive fragility were underweighted, with Leeds manager Daniel Farke claiming that ‘Arsenal are the best team in Europe’

The man of the match for the game was Noni Madueke, who replaced Bukayo Saka 30 minutes before the game started, getting 2 assists and a goal (initially awarded an own goal by Leeds keeper Karl Darlow). This brilliant graph from the Opta match report shows the chances created by both sides, with Arsenal demonstrating a clear dominance.

Liverpool vs Newcastle (4-0)

Model xG: 0.88 vs 0.77. Actual xG: 2.28 vs 0.36

My model expected a tight matchup, but underestimated Liverpool’s game-state impact and finishing burst, which blew the scoreline open.

Hugo Ekitiké contributed 1.06 xG (54% of Liverpool’s xG) and translated that into a brace (2 goals). He also took six shots, more than any other player on the pitch, showing he was central to chance creation and finishing efficiency. Liverpool’s attack was deadly, with 17 shots and 7 on target.

Spurs vs Manchester City (2-2)

Model xG: 0.93 vs 1.72. Actual xG: 1.17 vs 2.19

Dominic Solanke had a massive game for spurs, scoring twice from difficult chances, including an acrobatic finish and a goal from close range. The model predicted a similar difference in xG to what was observed. This graph from Opta shows who created the most attacking threat in the game, which looks slightly favourable to Manchester City.