Building a Football Prediction Model: Week 5

This week I have added a Monte Carlo Simulation into the predictions, simulating 20,000 matches.

Monte Carlo Simulation

Here is the code I used for the Monte Carlo Simulation added this week, alongside a simple explanation.

This next code is more experimental..

Matches are then counted in a tally format, and each result is expressed as a percentage. The image below is results for Tottenham vs Newcastle.

My Predictions

I have predicted all teams to score at least one goal, and five 1-1 draws. The last time every single team scored was Matchweek 15 of the 2018/19 season, so I am not too confident in these predictions.

Match in Focus

Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United

I used the Monte Carlo system to simulate the game, which predicted a 1-1 scoreline.

Chelsea and Newcastle meet in the Premier League coming off mixed form; Chelsea sit in the top‑four race while Newcastle are mid‑table. Their last league clash ended 2–2, with Newcastle dominating xG early before Chelsea fought back, highlighting both sides’ attacking potential and defensive lapses (Newcastle had ~2.31 xG to Chelsea’s ~1.24 in that game). Historically in head‑to‑head matchups Chelsea have edged slightly ahead, but Newcastle have shown resilience at home and dropped points from winning positions frequently this season .

Results

Accuracy: 7/20 teams (35%)