Above are my predictions for this week’s games, alongside the % probability of each outcome occurring, as well as the Poisson distribution’s most likely score.
Key games
Manchester City vs Newcastle (xG: 2.49 vs 0.90)
Model lean: Man City Win.
Current Score Call: 2-1
Betting Angle: Strong favourite, but Newcastle’s quality means BTTS could be viable.
Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool (xG: 0.99 vs 1.45)
Model lean: Liverpool Win
Current score call: 1-1
Betting Angle: Draw probability high at 34%. Liverpool favoured but not dominant.
Spurs vs Arsenal (xG: 0.82 vs 1.78)
Model lean: Arsenal Win
Current Score call: 0-1
Betting Angle: Model heavily favours Arsenal, but derby chaos keeps the draw live.
Betting tips
Chelsea (75%) and Manchester City (69%) are clear statistical favourites. But a 75% win probability translates to fair odds of 1.33. If the market offers 1.20, there’s no value. If it offers 1.45, there might be.
Several fixtures show draw probabilities north of 30%:
- Brentford vs Brighton (32%)
- Forest vs Liverpool (34%)
- Sunderland vs Fulham (36%)
- Everton vs Man United (35%)
The average football bettor tends to overbet favourites. Draws often carry hidden value, especially in evenly matched xG games.
Some games, like Sunderland vs Fulham, and Everton vs Man Utd, are no-bet spots due to clustering of probabilities, shrinking edges.
Predicting Premier League games 
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