betting
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Is Backing the Favourite A Winning Strategy?
Backing the favourite is a common (and easiest) strategy in horse racing. Instead of guessing, I wanted to examine the numbers to see whether this was effective. In this post, I’m using race data, Starting Price (SP) odds, and a few Excel pivot tables to answer a basic question: Do favourites win often enough to… Read more
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Building a Football Prediction Model: Week 4
This week I am adding a time series model (SARIMA) to better react to team momentum and dips in form. Again, I am predicting matches days ahead of time to increase transparency. What is SARIMA? Seasonal AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) is a time-series forecasting model designed to predict future values based on historical patterns.… Read more
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Building a Football Prediction Model: Week 3
Accuracy: 40% (8/20 teams had predicted goals scored) Home Away xG Home xG Away Actual Score Leeds Arsenal 1.06 1.25 0-4 Wolves Bournemouth 1.61 2.35 0-2 Brighton Everton 0.68 0.72 1-1 Chelsea West Ham 1.99 0.81 3-2 Liverpool Newcastle 0.88 0.77 4-1 Aston Villa Brentford 1.88 0.75 0-1 Man United Fulham 1.69 0.95 3-2 N… Read more
Predicting Premier League games 